Weekend Racing Review - Super(ish) Saturday

Calling this weekend's action at Newbury 'Super Saturday' might be a bit of a stretch these days, especially as it follows all the high-class action we saw at the DRF last weekend. However, it was a decent weekend of action, even if it might not have a huge bearing on the upcoming spring festivals. Having said that, it is worth bearing in mind that the Newbury card has produced 14 Cheltenham festival winners since 2010. In addition, I'll also look at the chase action from Warwick and Navan. I'll attempt to analyse all the action, by using direct time comparisons for each of the race winners. The charts you'll see below are adjusted for weight carried and extra distance run to allow for direct comparison.

Newbury Saturday 8th February - Chases

The strongest performance of the day came from Master Chewy, winning the Game Spirit Chase in a narrow finish, which looked like it could have gone to both Matata and Libberty Hunter in the closing stages. The pace of the race was strong throughout, allowing both the winner and Libberty Hunter to creep into the race from slightly off the pace on the long home straight. The form compares fairly similarly to the Denman Chase winner Djelo. That race was not quite as strong, but can be upgraded as it was run at a slow pace in the early stages. The pace steadily built throughout and meant that Djelo actually completed 4 out to the line around 5 lengths quicker than Master Chewy. Djelo looks very adaptable over different trips and there is probably not much difference between the abilities of the two horses, as they showed in their novice days. I'd rate both winners in the mid-to-high 150s.

Newbury Saturday 8th February - Hurdles

The William Hill Hurdle, as it often is, was run at a break-neck pace, particularly early on. The pace was too quick for many and resulted in an unusually uncompetitive finish and an easy winner in Joyeuse, who showed significant stamina. The time, when adjusted for distance ran and weight carried, does not appear that impressive, however the ground would likely have softened after the earlier races, due to some rainfall. Even so, I'm not sure I'd be in a mad rush to side with the winner next time. It was a tough race, the performance definitely won't go unnoticed by the handicapper and the market and it was stamina which won it, meaning that a step-up in trip may be beneficial. Horses that were held up and stayed on well in the closing stages, such as Navajo Indy, were potentially flattered slightly, as the stamina of horses ahead of him emptied. Whereas runners such as Mirabad, who lead or were up with the pace, can be forgiven a weak finishing effort.

Warwick Saturday 8th February - Chases

There were only two chases at Warwick on Saturday, so not a lot of opportunity for comparison, but the time of L'Eau Du Sud in the Kingmaker looks fairly decent. It was run at a very good pace throughout. Whether he tired or idled on the run-in is up for debate, but there was a slight slowing in pace, allowing Rubaud to get within a length. Still, the time compared well with Le Milos, who won a much more steadily run race. It is hard to rate these veterans races, as they are often in a bit of freefall down the handicap, but I'd estimate L'Eau Du Sud is around 15-20 lengths better, allowing for worsening ground and the steady pace of the later race. He'd therefore worthy of a rating in the low-to-mid 150s.

It was a rare example of a horse winning and actually drifting for their Cheltenham target. I think it would be unfair to say he underperformed, but this seems to be his level and initial (over)hype following his first couple of chase starts has died down a little. It is worth noting the marked improvement by Rubaud, who was considerably the better hurdler and should continue to progress on better ground.

Navan - Sunday 9th February - Chases

There were also just two chases at Navan on Sunday, and another example of a horse winning and drifting in price for their Cheltenham target, in Better Days Ahead, who won the Grade 2 novice chase. Both races were slowly run, but they took it to an extreme in the Grade 2 chase, where they were over 30 lengths behind handicap winner Verdant Place at 3 out, before a dash to the line meant they finished a comparative 14 lengths behind. Although there was nothing special about the overall times, the performances of Better Days Ahead and particularly Stellar Story can be upgraded given how inefficiently the race was run. I'd argue Stellar Story is the horse to take out the race, as he gained a significant amount of ground in the sprint for the line, overcoming the head start he had given the winner, and also the concession of 5lbs. It was a much improved performance and his odds of 20/1 for the Browns Advisory novice chase at Cheltenham looks fair, especially if he is able to improve his jumping again.