Weekend Racing Review - DRF bubbles burst and the same old stars

There was plenty of high quality action this weekend, with some top performances from the usual suspects in open company, namely State Man, El Fabiolo and Galopin Des Champs. The rest was slightly less predictable, with some surprises, bubbles and burst and head scratching performances, particularly in the novice chase division. Using adjusted sectional charts, the performances of each day is analysed below.

Leopardstown 3rd February - Hurdles

I'll start by looking at the hurdle races on Saturday, where the standout performance was that of Dancing City, who finished strongest in a fairly steadily-run race. It looks solid enough form, and he is probably value for a bit more than 5 lengths superiority over juvenile winner Kargese (see below), but this level of form is likely still short of what is needed to win at Cheltenham. It is expected that juveniles are still a decent bit behind their novice counterparts at this stage of their careers, so it was still a fair effort from Kargese, in what was an evenly run race, despite the bunched finish. She has progressed well from her debut in Ireland, but she probably needs to progress a good bit more again to trouble Sir Gino in the Triumph. His shortening in the betting to odds-on for that race looks justified.

Regarding the bumper, the chart below is adjusted for the missed obstacles, to allow for comparison. It was run at a fairly similar pace to the juvenile hurdle up to 3 out, before a drop in pace to 2 out, followed by a fairly impressive turn of foot from the winner Jeroboam Machin. Overall, it was probably run to a comparable level of the juvenile hurdle, and 5/1 for the Champion Bumper looks reasonable, especially given this race is often a good pointer to Cheltenham. It is worth noting the run of The Yellow Clay, who hit trouble in running but ran on eye-catchingly, and recorded a final furlong time only half a length behind that of the winner.

Leopardstown 3rd Feburary - Chases

Another easy success for Galopin Des Champs, although the performance didn't look quite as devastatingly impressive as his win in the Savills Chase over Christmas. Time comparisons below show just how slowly this race was run, particularly on the first circuit. In fact, the second circuit was run just 6 lengths slower than that of the Irish Arkle, despite them running 1 mile further in the Irish Gold Cup. This could have played into the hands of Fastorslow, so the fact that GDC was still able to win easily demonstrates his impressive versatility. With speed and stamina assured, he just needs to turn up to Cheltenham in good form and the Gold Cup will be his again. This is by no means a certainty, of course, as he puts a lot into his races and he'll need to produce a third big performance in a row.

Unfortunately, there is clearly an issue with Marine Nationale, as he folded quite tamely in the Irish Arkle. Taking nothing away from Il Etait Temps, however, in another race that turned into a bit of a sprint (although not as much of a sprint as the Irish Gold Cup). The form looks to a good level, as the 15 lengths he finished ahead of 133-rated Madara can be upgraded significantly, however he will need to prove he is just as effective in an end to end gallop.

Leopardstown 4th February - Hurdles

Time comparisons between Irish Champion Hurdle winner State Man and Novice Hurdle winner Ballyburn are easy to make given they both ran over 2 miles. The novice hurdle was run at a relatively good pace throughout and comparisons with the handicap suggest Ballyburn has ran to a mark in the low 150s, similar to what he achieved at Christmas. For as good as it looked, I wouldn't be in a rush to back him now at a short price for Cheltenham as I don't think we have learnt a lot more about his ability, and there is of course the usual unknown about what race he will actually turn up (he's more than capable of winning both).

A lot will be made of the similarity between the winning overall time of State Man and Ballyburn, but there should be no doubt that State Man produced the far superior performance. Impaire Et Passe looked far from a natural front runner and some questionable jumping meant the pace dropped leading up to 2 out, which set up a bit of a sprint. State Man was able to capitalise, as he usually does when races are run in this manner. Of course, he still has ground to make up with Constitution Hill, but I am coming around to the idea that he can get a lot closer to him in the Champion Hurdle this year. All of his runs this season have been better than that Champion Hurdle effort and a slow pace in a likely small field would suit him.

Leopardstown 4th February - Chases

Sunday saw another head-scratching performance in the novice chase, with Gaelic Warrior disappointing. It is clear he is reliant on going right handed to show the best of his ability, but there was definitely something else amiss today. What is notable about the race is just how quickly the pace was all the way up to 2 out. They were significantly clear of the handicap and also slightly ahead of the run of the top-class El Fabiolo, when adjusted for extra distance ran. This is unusual for a 2-runner race, but highlights the class Fact To File possesses. Of course, he was heavily eased from the last, but there is every reason to believe he would have completed in a time comparable to that of El Fabiolo. He looks to have huge potential and is a genuine future Gold Cup contender.