Weekend Racing Review - brilliant Banbridge and a great Grey

Kempton 13th January - Chases

I'll start by looking at the action at Kempton on Saturday, with the highlight being Banbridge winning the Silviniaco Conti chase. Throughout the race, I actually thought he did not look the likely winner and was not jumping as quickly and exuberantly as he is capable of. This is reflected by the fact he traded at 6/1 in-running. However, he found plenty in the straight and was able to win nicely from Pic D'Orhy, who had the run of the race, as horses ridden by Harry Cobden often do. Adjusted comparisons with the other chase winners on the card are shown below and indicate a very good performance from Banbridge. His relative finishing position of 29 lengths ahead of 137-rated Flegmatik probably should be downgraded to around 25 lengths, due to the latter's superior finishing speed (108.3% v 105.5%), but it still puts Banbridge running to a mark in the low-to-mid 160s. Comparisons with Pepe Le Moko reinforce this rating. Given the question marks regarding his rivals, I would make him favourite for the Ryanair, however I am, for now, resisting the urge to back him given his dependency on decent ground.

Warwick 13th January - Chases

At Warwick, Grey Dawning made amends for his blip at Cheltenham and confirmed his very impressive Haydock win, on a day where I am fairly convinced he would have won the Betfair Chase. Whilst Broadway Boy clearly ran well below form, I think Apple Away ran to her rating. Adjusted comparisons are fairly easy to make with the veterans race, which show the fairly relentless pace of the race throughout, but also highlight how Grey Dawning was able to quicken off that pace (finishing speed 104%), despite hardly being asked a question by Harry Skelton. The only negative would be his lack of fluency over the last 2 fences, something which cost him the race at Cheltenham, but he has proved his adaptability, showing great pace at Haydock and stamina in abundance at Warwick. Quotes of 10/1 for the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham are more than fair, but with his next target potentially being the 2.5 mile Scily Isles Chase, I would not rule out a switch to the Turners.

Punchestown 14th January - Hurdles

Plenty has been made of Mystical Power, especially given his breeding. It was undoubtedly a taking performance at Punchestown, but was it enough to justify favouritism for the Supreme? The adjusted chart below helps to show the answer. There was not a great deal of quality to compare him to, Idol was only rated 97 and Lisnagar Fortune is possibly around a 130-horse, but he is clearly far superior to them, and value for plenty more given the speed at which he finished - 110% compared with only 103% for the other 2 hurdle winners and 107% for the runner up Jigoro. This allow us to significantly upgrade his performance and suggest he has ran to a mark of the low-to-mid 150s, definitely sufficient to justify Supreme favouritism, in a relatively weak looking year at this stage. It is, of course, not guaranteed that he'll end up in said race, so I can pass on the 4/1 for now. I am still wary of Jeriko Du Reponet, who I covered in my Christmas blog. In terms of performance against the clock, Mystical Power has achieved considerably more, but visually Jeriko has looked outstanding and looks the more assured jumper.