Christmas 2023 Review

This blog will take an in-depth look at some of the key jumps races over the Christmas period. It is always a busy time for jumps racing, and seemed more so than ever this year with the movement of the John Durkan allowing us the privilege of seeing Galopin Des Champs for a second time this season. It does seem that the highlights of the jumps season are now concentrated into 4-5 windows - Christmas, DRF, Cheltenham and Aintree / Punchestown, which I'm not convinced is an ideal situation but here we are.

Before I get into the detail of the races, I'll explain my approach regarding assessing each race and form comparisons. I look to make direct comparisons between all hurdle races or all chases ran on a particular card. The graphs you'll see below compare the average position of the horses in question (usually the winner) relative to each other, at each obstacle. The relative position (in lengths) is calculated based on the average time taken for each section (obstacle-to-obstacle) and after adjustments are made for extra distance ran, weight carried and obstacles missed. This allows for direct comparison between races. The graphs show the pace each race was run at, for each section, and allows for conclusions to be drawn regarding the strength of each race and the performance of individual horses.

Kempton 26th December - Chases

A lot has been made about how the overall time for the Kauto Star was a whopping 4.5s (20 lengths, shown below as difference between +11 for Il Est Francais and -9 for Hewick) quicker than the King George, but it is harder to justify exactly how this was achieved. As shown on the chart below, the early and mid pace in the King George was very steady, with Hewick a relative distance of 23 lengths behind Il Est Francais and 11 lengths behind the 2 and a half mile handicap winner Blow Your Wad. The leaders of the King George then injected pace leading up to 3 out, which, with hindsight we can see they were unable to sustain and this allowed Hewick back into the race. Although this move by Allaho and Bravemansgame looked inefficient and costly, direct comparison with the other 2 race winners suggest that if they were both at their peak, they should have easily been able to sustain their finishing effort from 2 out and not allow Hewick past. Of course, we don't know how Shishkin would have finished, but on this evidence, it is fairly safe to assume he would have won had he been able to produce a finishing effort somewhere near his best.

Il Est Francais put up a very impressive visual performance when winning the Kauto Star, and indeed the time comparisons with the King George look very good. However, comparisons with the handicap, which only put him 12 lengths ahead of 135 rated Blow Your Wad, reduce the magic of his performance slightly. It also suggests 135 rated Kilbeg King, who finished 14 lengths behind Il Est Francais, ran roughly to form. Of course, Il Est Francais won with considerable ease, so the raw time performance, which is around 150, can be upgraded significantly. Further upgrading can be justified based on the speed he finished from 4 out, which resulted in a finishing speed of 104.5%.

Kempton 26th December - Hurdles

Constitution Hill proved his brilliance yet again with a devastating turn of foot from 3 out to land the Christmas hurdle. Harry Cobden on Rubaud tried his best to unsettle Constitution Hill, with a pace collapse leading up to 3 out, but it had no effect on the inevitable result.

Leopardstown 26th December - Hurdles

There was a lot of opportunities for comparison from the hurdles and bumper ran on at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, all of which were over 2miles, although there were no stand out performances, on the face of it. King Of Kingsfield's win can probably be rated as the best performance on the card, thanks to his quickening from 2 out resulting in a finishing speed of 104.5%. It was a well judged ride aboard Ataboycharlie, where the leaders went too quickly early on and he was able to capitalise. I would not be particularly positive regarding Kala Conti and the juvenile, in a race where they went slowly throughout and finished at a modest pace compared to the rest of the card.

Leopardstown 27th December - Chases

There was only 1 other chase ran on this day in which to compare the visually brilliant performance of Marine Nationale to, and the evidence suggests he produced a very strong debut, beating 159 rated Dinoblue by 8 lengths, and he is potentially value for more given the ground he gained after the last.

Leopardstown 28th December - Chases

Again there were only 2 chases ran on 28th December, so not a great deal to compare the performance of Galopin Des Champs to, however there is enough to suggest he is completely back to his best and recorded one of his best performances ever. Purely on overall times, he finished 10 lengths behind Fact To File, however close analysis of the sectionals below show he was 30 lengths behind at one point, before a serious quickening. His ability to impressively win both slowly run races and races run at true gallops throughout, such as last years Gold Cup, likely make him the best staying chaser for the past decade. Gerri Colombe disappointed, he unsuited by the steady early pace and was unable to quicken. Fact To File has a lot of promise, it is difficult to put a figure on his performance, but he certainly deserves to be right up towards the head of the market for the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham festival.

Leopardstown 29th December - Chases

There were just 2 chases again on the final day of Leopardstown's Christmas festival, which saw Grangeclare West beat a strong field impressively. The chart below shows this was at least 30 lengths better than the now 117-rated handicap winner. Emphasis needed on the 'at least' as the speed at which he was able to finish means the performance can be upgraded. From the evidence, it is difficult to conclude who achieved more out of Grangeclare West and Fact To File, but they are clearly the strongest staying novice chasers on either side of the Irish Sea at this stage, and by a considerable margin.

Leopardstown 28th December - Hurdles

Returning to the action over hurdles, the 28th December saw a nice performance from Irish Point. However, they went very slowly early on, and whilst he was able to quicken smartly, he probably didn't beat much and stamina in a strongly run 3 mile race remains an unknown. It was a notable performance from Jade De Grugy, in a race where they went at a relatively even gallop, she was able to quicken decisively. At this stage, she is the Willie Mullins' number one for the mares novice hurdle. She has been well backed for that race recently, but anything over 8/1 looks more than fair.

Leopardstown 29th December - Hurdles

The final day of the Leopardstown Christmas festival saw the hurdle races generally ran at more even paces throughout. It was a strong performance from Ballyburn, with his performance seemingly splitting that of State Man and 142-rated Jetara. Despite not beating much in his race, from comparisons we can deduce he ran to a mark in the low 150s, with the potential to upgrade this significantly given the ease with which he achieved victory. Not much more can be said about State Man's excellent performance, it was a race ran at a good, even pace and he proved he is comfortably better than Impaire Et Passe. I don't think he was at his best in the Champion Hurdle last season, so it will be interesting if he can get closer to Constitution Hill this time. Connections clearly think a lot of the bumper winner Jalon D'Oudairies. As usual for bumpers, they went a steady pace up to the position of 2 out on the hurdles course, before a serious quickening, similar to that of State Man. It was a solid performance, but I wouldn't be in a rush to back him for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

Newbury 30th December - Hurdles

Some of the Great Britain's highest profile novice hurdles were in action at Newbury on Challow hurdle day, both in the Challow itself and the introductory hurdle earlier on the card, namely Supreme favourite Jeriko Du Reponet. A lot has been made of the horses' price for the festival race, being as low as 12/1 before he made his rules debut. He clearly has a huge reputation, despite this sometimes being played down by his trainer. The key question at this stage is whether he has done enough to justify his current lofty position at the head of the Supreme market. On raw / overall times and form, the answer is certainly not, beating 124-rated Secret Squirrel by under 2 lengths is miles away from winning a Supreme. However, the speed at which he finished from 2 out was 4 seconds quicker than any horse in any of the other races. In both of his wins so far, I have also been very taken with how confident both jockeys have looked as he has approached the last couple of hurdles. For a horse that started 12/1 for the Supreme before his debut, I think he has definitely achieved enough to justify now being less than half that price. The form of the Challow hurdle looks somewhat suspect, although it should be noted the ground would have deteriorated due to the rain, and they definitely went too quick early on.

Cheltenham 1st January - Hurdles

Due to the layout of the courses at Cheltenham, direct comparisons with races of different lengths can be tricky, however we can see that Bob Olinger is (almost) back to some of the best form he showed as a novice hurdler. In a race run at a similar pace to the maiden, he was able to finish outstandingly strongly. The evidence suggests it would be fair to say he could still be effective at a high level over 2 miles.

Thanks for making it to the end of this blog and hopefully it has been informative, any comments, questions, trolling is welcomed on twitter (@haretortoise_).