Champion Hurdle 2025 Preview

With confirmation that Brighterdaysahead is going to swerve the easier option of the Mares Hurdle and Constitution Hill having proven his soundness for several months now, we are left with the prospect of a tantalising Champion Hurdle, and easily the most eagerly anticipated race of the festival. In this preview, I'll look at time comparisons from the key races this season, with the aim of providing a steer as to what might unfold next Tuesday.

Starting at the beginning of the season with the clash in the Morgiana between Brighterdaysahead and State Man. The graph below has been adjusted to allow for weight carried and distance run, to allow for direct comparison with the other hurdle winners on the card. It was a race run at good pace and the winner was able to record a decent time for the grade, if not spectacular. The performance was worthy of a rating of around 160, evidenced by comparisons with other winners on the card. The feeling at the time was that State Man would reverse the form, and the 2 horses actually went off almost identical odds when they both met at Christmas.

Constitution Hill's clash with Lossiemouth in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton came up next. It was a reasonably strongly run race throughout, but there was probably scope for the pace to be a bit quicker, evidenced by a finishing speed of 106% and also how strongly Constitution Hill travelled throughout. For context, Kientzheim is rated 121 and East India Express 129. It is strong form, and perhaps the strongest hurdles form we have seen all season. Although someway below his best, Constitution Hill ran to a level worthy of a rating in the high 160s, with plenty of room for improvement. Lossiemouth didn't travel anywhere near as well throughout the race, however she was able to quicken fairly well. She has shown her best in steadily run races where she has demonstrated a devastating turn of foot. She is unlikely to get that in this year's Champion Hurdle, however.

Visually, it was an outstanding performance from Brighterdaysahead at Leopardstown at Christmas. The race was setup perfectly for her, with the pacemaker King Of Kingsfield ensuring it was a strongly run race throughout. She has shown in the past that this is crucial for seeing her at her best. In the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham last year, she was unable to overcome slightly inferior opposition in a slowly run race that turned into a bit of a sprint. I suspect the fact the connections will be able to employ King Of Kingsfield as a pacemaker in the Champion Hurdle was a factor in their decision to go for this race. As a result, I think we can fairly safely assume the race will be strongly run and the best horse will win. Digging a bit deeper into the time of that Leopardstown win suggests it was a strong performance. If you consider July Flower as being a high 140s horse, then time comparisons suggest Brighterdaysahead ran to around 165. These figures are also backed up by 139 rated handicap winner Al Gasparo, who's performance is worthy of upgrading as it was steadily run in the early stages. A bit of a step up from her seasonal debut at Punchestown, likely due to how the race was run. The strong pace did not suit State Man though, who was a long way below his best.

The Unibet Hurdle ended up being a bit of a farce of a race, with Nico De Boinville slowing Constitution Hill to not much more than a canter down the hill, and the other runners all fighting not to get to close to him. This lead to a final flight blunder, however he was able to recover and quicken very easily. There was not a lot to learn from this race, apart from evidence that he remained sound.

The Irish Champion Hurdle, won easily by State Man ended up disappointing as a spectacle, with Lossiemouth falling at the 6th hurdle in a race where they went an exceptionally strong pace, up to that point. Clearly, she fell too early to draw too many conclusions as to what might have happened, however I suspect it would haven take a bit of time for her to get over that race, which has to be a slight question mark. It also increases the likelihood of her diverting to the Mares Hurdle.

The big question mark is just how close can Constitution Hill run to his very best. His peak performance came in the 2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle, where a very strong pace allowed him to clock a scarcely believable time, a whole 6 seconds ahead of Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle. There is a good chance that this year's renewal will be run to a similar pace, swap Dysart Dynamo for King Of Kingsfield and Jonbon for Brighterdaysahead. Visually, his 2023 Champion Hurdle was fantastic, however times throughout the race are almost identical to the run of Marine Nationale, and more will be needed from him to win this year. It will be a fair ask given the issues he has had, but one I think he is capable of.

Brighterdaysahead is the obvious main danger and the race will be run to suit her. She was a bit disappointing at the Cheltenham festival last year, and has only really recorded one performance good enough to win a typical Champion Hurdle - that being her last outing. Despite this, the 7lbs mares' allowance is significant and I will not be surprised if she shortens from her current exchange price of around 11/4.

Lossiemouth has to be respected, although there are enough doubts to put you off her. Notably the fall last time and the unknown about her abilities in a very strongly run race. It is definitely unusual, likely unprecedented, for a reigning Champion Hurdler and Irish Champion Hurdler to be 4th favourite, but that is the case with State Man, and it is testament to the strength of this year's renewal. The time and form of his Champion Hurdle win was not that special and although capable of running to around 165, that will likely not be enough this year.